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09/03/2010 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak conceded Friday that the team had cut longtime kicker Kris Brown.
Kubiak did not want to discuss the whole of the team's cuts at Friday's press conference, saying they would be officially announced Saturday when all NFL teams are required to set their rosters at 53 players for the season.
He did, however, feel the need to address the situation of Brown, who was the last player remaining from the original Texans team that began play in 2002. Kubiak called the decision "miserable" in acknowledging Brown had been with the team longer than he had.
The 2009 season was not one to remember for Brown, who had a number of devastating missed field goals in late-game situations as the club ended the season at 9-7 and just out of a playoff spot.
In all, Brown hit just 21-of-32 field goals last year, a career-low 65.6 percent accuracy rate for the 33-year-old veteran.
Kubiak also pointed to Neil Rackers' ability on kickoffs as a reason why he beat out Brown for the starting job.
Kubiak also indicated seventh-year cornerback Jacques Reeves had been released. Reeves played in 12 games, starting five, for Houston last season and recorded 31 tackles, one interception and seven passes defensed.
Also Friday, the Houston Chronicle is reporting the Texans signed running back Derrick Ward, who was cut by Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Kubiak acknowledged that the team worked out both Ward and former Raiders back Justin Fargas.
Ward managed just 409 yards and one score in 14 games last season for the Bucs after a breakout 2008 season with the Giants, in which he topped 1,000 yards while averaging 5.6 yards per attempt.
<< Calcavecchia leads First Tee Open by two
Pebble Beach, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Calcavecchia fired an eight-under 64
Friday to take a two-stroke lead after the first round of the First Tee Open.
Calcavecchia fired his 64 at Del Monte Golf Course, which is one of two
courses used
<< Hamels, Ruiz help Phils nip Brewers
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Ruiz drove in the lone run of the
game and Cole Hamels pitched seven strong innings, as the Philadelphia
Phillies snuck past the Milwaukee Brewers, 1-0, in the opener of a three-game
series
<< Report: Giants trade for Sage Rosenfels
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Giants have apparently found
a backup quarterback after reportedly acquiring Sage Rosenfels from the
Minnesota Vikings.
The Minneapolis Star Tribune cited sources as confirming the mov
<< A's sign Hermida, assign him to Triple-A Sacramento
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Athletics signed outfielder Jeremy
Hermida on Friday after he was recently released by the Boston Red Sox.
He was sent to Triple-A Sacramento.
Hermida, who appeared in 52 games for the Red So
Rays down O's to keep pace in AL East >>
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carl Crawford went 3-for-5 with an RBI and a
run scored, as the Tampa Bay Rays beat Baltimore, 4-1, in the opener of a
three-game series at Camden Yards.
Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and Reid Brignac
Dodgers' activate Padilla from DL >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Dodgers activated
pitcher Vicente Padilla from the 15-day disabled list on Friday prior
to the opening of a weekend set with division rival San Francisco.
The veteran ri
Bodine's fuel holds up for Kentucky win >>
Sparta, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Todd Bodine overcame a spin and then conserved
enough fuel at the finish to pull off a stunning victory in the Built Ford
Tough 225 Camping World Truck Series race at Kentucky Speedway.
Bodine, the curren
Garcia beats Reds again as Cardinals end skid >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jaime Garcia kept an unbeaten streak against
Cincinnati intact with 6 2/3 effective innings and Jon Jay set the tone with a
first-inning triple and run scored, as St. Louis slowed the Reds' roll with a
3-2 win
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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