NL Central: All eyes now on Oswalt

Baseball Betting Lines

07/21/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a 38-56 record and a 14-game deficit to make up in the National League Central standings, it's safe to say the Houston Astros aren't going anywhere this season. But will Roy Oswalt?

With the Seattle Mariners having shipped away Cliff Lee earlier this month, Oswalt now becomes the most accomplished starting pitcher available at the upcoming July 31 trade deadline. And while it's clear the Astros are looking to move their longtime ace in order to accelerate the rebuilding process, there are a few outside factors that make it less certain as to whether or not they'll be able to pull off an acceptable deal.

One would think that the market would be great for a three-time All-Star and former League Championship Series MVP with a career 143-81 record, but Houston has had some difficulty in finding potential takers for Oswalt. The veteran right-hander's contract -- he's owed around $25 million on a pact that runs through the 2011 season -- looms as one obstacle, and the Astros don't seem inclined to pay a good chunk of that remaining salary unless they can get a top-tier prospect in return.

Oswalt also has a full no-trade clause that most insiders believe he'd only be willing to waive for a select number of teams, which would likely take such pitching-needy contenders as the Tigers and White Sox out of the mix. The Rangers, whom Oswalt did have an interest in joining, are also no longer an option with Lee now in the fold.

In essence, Oswalt's suitors figure to be limited to the big spenders able to take on his hefty contract, and that select pool could be further reduced if teams like the Red Sox and Mets opt not to pursue a starting pitcher at the deadline. The Yankees may be more intrigued, however, now that one-time Astro Andy Pettitte will miss at least a month after straining his groin in his latest start, and the Phillies have been mentioned as a possible fit as well.

Oswalt has done his best to enhance his value in recent weeks. The 32-year-old racked up 16 scoreless innings over his final two starts prior to the All-Star break, including a one-hit shutout against Pittsburgh on July 8, and has produced a quality start in 15 of his 19 assignments this year. He was forced to exit Sunday's outing against the Pirates after four innings due to taking a line drive off his left ankle, but isn't expected to miss any additional time.

BREWERS' HART ON THE BLOCK AS WELL

Another NL Central player on the radar of playoff-hopeful teams is Milwaukee Brewers slugger Corey Hart, and for good reason. The power-hitting outfielder is presently among the NL leaders with 22 homers, while his 70 RBI trails only Philadelphia's Ryan Howard for tops among Senior Circuit players. With the Brewers still treading water in the division race and Hart in line for a sizeable raise through arbitration next season, it's quite conceivable the 2010 All-Star will be playing in another city come August.

The San Francisco Chronicle reported last week that the Giants have considerable interest in Hart, and the Padres and Rays are also believed to be high on the athletic 28-year-old. All three of those teams are well stocked with talented young pitching, a commodity Brewers general manager Doug Melvin is coveting as he attempts to shore up one of his club's most glaring weaknesses.

Hart, who started in right field for the NL in last Tuesday's All-Star Game, hasn't seemed to be too bothered by the persistent rumors. He went 7-for-16 with five RBI in Milwaukee's four-game series at Atlanta following the break and had hit safely in nine straight contests before going 0-for-4 in Monday's matchup at Pittsburgh. In 17 games thus far in July, Hart is batting .319 (23- for-72) with four home runs.

"They told me he was a streaky guy," manager Ken Macha recently told the Brewers' official site. "This has been a long streak, so maybe it's a trend and not a streak."

Hart was one of three Milwaukee players, along with left fielder Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo, selected to this year's NL All-Star squad. Gallardo was unable to participate because of an oblique strain that's landed him on the disabled list, but the standout right-hander is expected to be activated to pitch Thursday's finale of a four-game series with the Pirates.

CARDINALS COME OUT FLYING AFTER THE BREAK

The St. Louis Cardinals were able to regain first place in the division after coming through with an impressive four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend. The performance also continued a history of success for the team under longtime skipper Tony La Russa to begin the season's second half.

The Cardinals' official site pointed out prior to Sunday's 5-4 victory over the Dodgers that St. Louis has won 12 of its 14 series that have immediately followed the All-Star break under La Russa's direction. After posting a 7-1 decision in Thursday's opener, the defending NL Central champions are an astounding 13-1 in their initial game after the hiatus.

St. Louis followed up its dismantling of the Dodgers with back-to-back victories over Philadelphia and has now come out on top in seven consecutive contests, the franchise's longest win streak since a seven-gamer during its world championship season of 2006. The surge, which came after the Cards lost seven times in a 10-game stretch from June 30-July 10, has moved La Russa's charges a half-game in front of Cincinnati for the Central's top spot.

The Cardinals displayed both excellent pitching and plenty of resolve in their sweep of the struggling Dodgers. Co-staff ace Chris Carpenter fired eight dominant innings to lead the way in Thursday's win, while fellow All-Star Adam Wainwright teamed with three relievers on a six-hit shutout as St. Louis registered a 2-0 triumph on Saturday. In Sunday's finale, the Cardinals scored five times over the final two innings to erase a 4-0 deficit, with Allen Craig and Matt Holliday coming through with back-to-back RBI singles with two out in the bottom of the ninth.

"Just a heck of an effort and it got better and better," said La Russa after Sunday's game. "Can't give them enough credit for how they hung in there."

Craig also had a key two-run double during the eighth inning while making a spot start at first base in place of Albert Pujols, with La Russa giving the three-time NL MVP the afternoon off in order to keep him fresh.

VOLQUEZ PROVIDES INSTANT BOOST FOR REDS

Despite having fallen behind the scorching Cardinals in the Central standings, Cincinnati made a move capable of shifting the balance of power in the NL playoff chance this past weekend. And the Reds didn't have to give up anything to do so.

Saturday's game with the Colorado Rockies marked the highly-anticipated return of Reds pitcher Edinson Volquez from an elbow injury that had knocked the gifted right-hander out of action for more than a year. It was well worth the wait, as the 2008 All-Star delivered six dazzling innings in leading Cincy to an 8-1 win.

Volquez held the Rockies to one run and three hits while racking up nine strikeouts in his first time on a major league mound since June 1 of last season. The hard-throwing Dominican also displayed very good command in his comeback start, walking just two batters and throwing 60-of-96 pitches for strikes.

"He was terrific," pitching coach Bryan Price said of Volquez on the Cincinnati website. "You never know what to expect with guys that are coming off this type of a situation. As well as he pitched in his rehab in his last few starts in Triple-A, you still have to deal with the emotions. The team's been playing well, and I'm sure he doesn't want to let them down. I thought he handled it really well."

Volquez, a 17-game winner with over 200 strikeouts for the Reds in 2008, joins a formidable rotation that also contains lynchpins Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto as well as Rookie of the Year candidate Mike Leake. And with youngster Travis Wood acquitting himself well during a recent callup and veteran Aaron Harang nearing a return from a back injury, Cincinnati suddenly sports one of the deepest starting staffs in the National League.

That depth could very well handy in a race where the Reds and Cardinals are among seven teams presently separated by 4 1/2 games competing for the NL's Wild Card berth.

SWEET LOU TO SAY SO LONG

Speculation about Lou Piniella's future was finally put to rest on Tuesday, when the Chicago Cubs manager publicly declared that he would be retiring at the conclusion of the 2010 season. The announcement hardly comes as a surprise, with the fiery field general set to turn 67 years old next month and in the final year of a contract he signed prior to the 2007 campaign.

"I've had four wonderful years here that I wouldn't trade for anything in the world," said Piniella in a statement. "I've grown to love the city and the fans, but at my age it will be time to enter a new phase in my life. It will enable me to spend more valuable time with my family - my wife, my kids and my grandchildren."

This season is Piniella's 23rd as a big-league skipper, and he entered Wednesday's game with Houston ranked 14th on baseball's all-time wins list with a 1,827-1,691 record. One of only five men in major league history to capture three Manager of the Year Awards, the former outfielder has led teams to six division titles -- including back-to-back NL Central crowns with the Cubs in 2007 and 2008 -- and seven postseason appearances as well as a 1990 world championship with the Cincinnati Reds. His 2001 Seattle Mariners tied a regular-season mark with 116 victories that year.

Piniella said his decision to reveal his future plans now instead of at season's end is "what's best for the organization in the long run." The move gives general manager Jim Hendry a head start on evaluating potential successors for Piniella's post, in addition to eliminating any media distractions the uncertainty had been creating.

Guesswork has already begun on whom Hendry will tab as the team's next manager, with Cubs legend Ryne Sandberg thought to be a leading candidate. The Hall of Fame second baseman is currently piloting Chicago's Triple-A affiliate in Iowa and has the I-Cubs in first place in the Pacific Coast League's American North Division.

PIRATES' ALVAREZ HEATING UP

The early results of the Pedro Alvarez era may not have been encouraging, but the Pittsburgh Pirates' prized prospect is beginning to show why he's widely regarded as one of baseball's premier up-and-coming players.

Alvarez, the No. 2 overall selection in the 2008 draft, began his tenure in the majors mired in a 4-for-35 slump, but the talented third baseman has hit safely in 15-of-18 starts since that poor first impression. The 23-year-old has really turned it up a notch as of late, having amassed a .327 average (16- for-49) and belting five homers while knocking in 11 runs over his last 13 games.

The former Vanderbilt star put forth his best showing since his mid-June promotion on Tuesday, swatting a pair of homers and driving in five runs to help the Pirates to a wild 11-9 win over Milwaukee. Alvarez's first long ball of the night was a grand slam that keyed a nine-run first-inning for the Bucs.

The early outburst marked the first time Pittsburgh had scored nine times in the opening frame since the club put up 10 runs in an eventual 15-11 loss at Philadelphia on June 8, 1989.

Alvarez wasn't the only Pirate youngster to make a significant contribution to Tuesday's verdict. Second baseman Neil Walker, Pittsburgh's first-round choice in 2004, went 5-for-5 to raise his season average to .311, while promising outfielder Jose Tabata had a two-run double during the team's first-inning barrage.

"Hitting is contagious, and we certainly showed that," said Walker afterward. "This is certainly something that we are capable of -- big innings like that one."

Walker became the first Pirates rookie to collect five hits in a game since John Wehner did so against Atlanta on July 23, 1991, and the converted catcher has gone a torrid 12-for-19 at the plate over his past four outings.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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