Federer gains seventh straight U.S. Open semifinal

Tennis Betting Lines

09/09/2010 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Federer advanced to his seventh straight U.S. Open semifinal by avenging a loss earlier this year to Swede Robin Soderling with a three-set triumph Wednesday night.

The second-seeded Federer, attempting to win the tournament for the sixth time, earned a 6-4, 6-4, 7-5 victory over the fifth-seeded Soderling in windy conditions in the final match of the night at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Next up for the super Swiss will be third seed Novak Djokovic, who took out 17th-seeded Frenchman Gael Monfils, 7-6 (7-2), 6-1, 6-2, in the day session.

Federer, who owns a men's record 16 major titles, including this year's Aussie Open crown, fired 18 aces to just two for his opponent. Federer won points on 50 of his 58 first serves and had 36 winners.

"If I can't serve in the wind I've got a problem here," Federer said. "You could wake me up at two in the morning or 4 in the morning, I can hit serves. It's what we do and I'm so happy it worked so well tonight."

Soderling, the reigning two-time French Open runner-up who snapped Federer's streak of 23 consecutive Grand Slam semifinal appearances by winning in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros earlier this year, had just 16 winners and couldn't solve the gusty conditions or his opponent's serve.

Federer, who lost to Argentine Juan Martin del Potro in last year's final here and was the U.S. Open champ from 2004-08, has not dropped a set yet at this fortnight. He moved to 13-1 all-time against Soderling, also beating him in last year's U.S. Open quarters and last year's French Open finale. This was their fifth straight meeting in a Grand Slam tourney.

A great drop shot gave Federer a break of serve in the first set for a 4-3 lead. Soderling was 0-for-4 on break point chances in the set and Federer held at love his final two service games.

In the second set, Federer was actually broken in the fourth game to square the set at 2-2. But he broke back on a passing shot and later used an ace down the middle to finish off the set.

A wide forehand from Federer gave Soderling a break in the third for a 5-3 lead, but Federer won the final four games, thanks in part to mistakes from the Swede. Soderling barked at himself after failing to come up with a return at the net as the set was soon evened at 5-5.

Soderling then fought off one break point, but a backhand wide gave Federer the big advantage for a 6-5 lead, putting the match on his racquet. He held at love in the final game, fittingly ending the encounter with an ace.

Earlier in the day, a tough first set went to Djokovic when Monfils played a rather poor tiebreak, and the second set was a throw-away one for the Frenchman, as the Serb simply dominated the stanza.

In the third set, Monfils had a chance to break Djokovic to pull within 3-4 and then serve to tie things up, but the Serb managed a key hold to go up 5-2 and then broke his French counterpart to reach the semis.

Djokovic moved on in 2 hours, 28 minutes, as he broke Monfils no less than seven times en route to victory. The Serb tallied 13 more unforced errors (50-37) on Day 10 of the fortnight, but he also connected for 21 more winners (38-17).

The 23-year-old Djokovic is now a perfect 5-0 lifetime against Monfils, including a first-round win here in New York back in 2005.

The former world No. 2 Djokovic will perform in his fourth U.S. Open and ninth career Grand Slam semifinal (2-6). The steady Serbian star was the 2007 U.S. Open runner-up to the great Federer and captured the Aussie Open championship in 2008.

Federer is 10-5 all-time against Djokovic, including a straight-set semifinal victory at the U.S. Open a year ago. In fact, Federer has eliminated the Serbian in Flushing Meadows each of the last three years.

Two more quarterfinals will be staged here on Thursday, when top-ranked Rafael Nadal meets eighth-seeded fellow Spanish lefthander Fernando Verdasco and 12th-seeded Russian Mikhail Youzhny takes on 25th-seeded Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka. Nadal is the reigning Wimbledon and French Open champ and owns eight major titles overall, but he still needs a U.S. Open one to complete a rare men's career Grand Slam. Youzhny reached the final four here back in 2006.

Nadal is a laughable 10-0 lifetime against Verdasco, including 2-0 in Grand Slam events.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

MySportsbook.com and Kentucky Derby Offer Bonuses
The 2008 Kentucky Derby has announced a $1-million bonus for this weekend’s 134th ‘Run for the Roses’ and MySportsbook.com is doing the same.

Well, not quite $1 million, but MySportsbook.com is offering a 75% rebate for Kentucky Derby lines. Check out the exclusive horse racing bonus for all the details.

According to MySportsbook.com, the favorites for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky are: Curlin (+250); Street Sense (+500); Scat Daddy (+700); Circular Quay (+750); and Nobiz Like Shobiz (+800).

Derby organizers announced this week that there will be a $1-million bonus at the 2007 Kentucky Derby odds if the first-place horse wins by more than 6 1/2 lengths – the margin of Barbaro's victory last year. The bonus would be divided Saturday among the winning trainer, jockey, owner and a charity, with each receiving 25 percent. The designated charity is the Barbaro Memorial Fund.

''It's certainly creative, it's certainly fun and it has something for the horsemen, which we always want to embrace,'' Churchill Downs president and chief executive Robert Evans said at a news conference. ''What's really cool is it will force us to remember Barbaro.''
    
Meanwhile, the Derby favorite – Curlin – is going against the odds this year. It's been 125 years since Apollo won after skipping his 2-year-old season, and not since Regret in 1915 has such a lightly seasoned horse worn the blanket of red roses.

Arkansas Derby winner Curlin – unbeaten in three career races – tries to overcome both those obstacles in Saturday's 133rd Derby.

''We're not running against history,'' trainer Steve Asmussen said Monday. ''We're running against who they load up.''

Six other horses have run in the Derby without benefit of 2-year-old races and with three or fewer starts. The best any of them managed was a sixth-place finish by Showing Up last year.
   
Asmussen dismissed suggestions that Curlin's lack of racing experience could keep him from the winner's circle.

”He exudes confidence and he's got a great presence about him,'' the trainer said. ''I feel great about the position we're in. He's not worried about anything, why should you be?''
   
The Kentucky Derby is at 4:04 p.m., ET Saturday.

For complete odds on the Kentucky Derby, visit MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.