Cejka leads by five; gets Sunday pairing with Tiger

Golf Betting Lines

05/09/2009 - Ponte Vedra Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If Alex Cejka is going to earn his first PGA Tour victory on Sunday, he will have to contend with his playing partner before all else.

That would be Tiger Woods.

Cejka only managed an even-par 72 on Saturday, but it was enough to extend his cushion to five shots over Woods and five other players after the third round of The Players Championship at the Stadium Course at the TPC at Sawgrass.

Cejka, who birdied the last to finish at 11-under 205, will now be paired with Woods in Sunday's final group in his quest to get his first win inside the United States.

While Cejka may not have the PGA Tour victory yet, he's certainly no slouch. He owns four European Tour titles, and three of those came with at least a piece of the 54-hole lead.

This isn't Cejka's first third-round lead on tour. He shared a piece of the 2001 British Open third-round lead before a final-round 73 left him in a tie for 13th, six behind eventual winner David Duval.

His five-stroke advantage is the largest third-round lead in Players Championship history and Cejka may need all of those strokes come Sunday afternoon.

Woods is the most intimidating player in the sport and six weeks ago, toppled Sean O'Hair down five at the beginning of the final round at Bay Hill. Five shots is the largest comeback in tournament history and Cejka has not visited the winner's circle in almost seven years, so he could be shaky.

No matter what, this should make for an interesting Sunday.

"If you want to win a big event like this, you have to beat everybody," acknowledged Cejka. "It doesn't matter who you play with. It's going to be a challenge tomorrow. I've played with him before. He's the best golfer in the world and we'll see what I can match."

Woods posted a two-under 70 to finish at six-under 210 and was joined in second by two-time U.S. Open champion Retief Goosen (71), Jonathan Byrd (71), Ben Crane (72), Henrik Stenson (73) and Ian Poulter (75).

Woods was only one-under par through his first 10 holes, then found trouble with a drive at the par-five 11th. His tee ball landed against a tree and Woods was forced to go left-handed with his second shot.

He was just trying to hit it back in the fairway, but with an inverted club face and a surprisingly proficient technique, Woods knocked it back into play.

"I don't have a problem hitting shots left-handed," said Woods. "I actually hit it too good and I was stymied there for my third shot."

Unfortunately, Woods couldn't save par at 11, but he got the stroke back at the next hole with a short birdie putt. The best in the game drove into a bunker at 15 and failed to make par. He took advantage of the next few holes to get back into contention.

At the par-five 16th, Woods knocked it on the green in two and lagged his 45- footer inside two feet. He birdied that hole, then delighted the crowd with a nine-iron tee ball to eight feet at the famous 17th.

Woods made that, then sank a spectacular par from the right rough at 18 to give himself a chance on Sunday.

"This is basically our fifth major, and that's how it's playing. It's playing just like a major championship," said Woods, who has not finished inside the top 10 since his only win here in 2001. "It's fast, it's hard, it's dry. And you just have to keep plodding along."

That's exactly what Cejka did on Saturday.

He made four pars in his first four holes and he had to scramble for some. At the fifth, Cejka rolled in a 14-foot birdie putt to get to 12-under par, but found trouble before the turn.

At the par-four seventh, Cejka three-putted from 35 feet for a bogey and two holes later, at the par-five ninth, Cejka made a mess of the hole and missed a nine-footer for par.

That bogey still left Cejka one ahead and he got it together at the par-five 11th. He knocked his second in a greenside bunker, then blasted out to four feet. Cejka converted the birdie putt and sank a six-footer for birdie at 12 to reclaim his three-stroke cushion.

That margin didn't last long.

Cejka missed a five-foot par save at the 13th and a 10-footer at 14, but was still two ahead thanks to mistakes by his closest competitors, most notably Stenson, who bogeyed three of his last five, and Kevin Na.

Na got within three after an eagle at 16, but back-to-back bogeys at 17 and 18 dropped him down the leaderboard.

Cejka was comfortably ahead. He made a curious decision at the par-five 16th with a poor lay-up, but survived with a par. He was four in front and made a two-putt par at the island 17th.

At the last, Cejka hit a spectacular shot to five feet. He calmly rolled in the birdie putt to match the largest 54-hole lead in tournament history.

"Every birdie is important out here, but I'm very pleased with the way I finished," said Cejka, who defected from Communist Czechoslovakia with his father when he was nine years old. "I went out there and tried to enjoy today's round and not really think too much ahead."

A Poulter birdie at the last would have put him in the final pairing Sunday, but now it'll be Cejka and the world's best golfer. It will be Cejka's biggest stage and he seems poised to prevail with a calm approach that worked on Saturday.

"My goal is to take it out there and take it easy," he said. "Wait for my chances."

Na had an eagle, four birdies, five bogeys and a triple-bogey for a round of 74. He is tied for eighth with Brian Davis (71) and John Mallinger (74) at minus-five.

Masters champion Angel Cabrera, who complained of pace of play problems with partner Na, posted a five-over 77 and fell into a tie for 28th at two-under 214.

Phil Mickelson shot a one-under 71 and is part of a group knotted in 41st at minus-one. That puts the 2007 champion two ahead of the 2008 winner, Sergio Garcia, who could only muster a one-over 73 on Saturday.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.