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03/14/2009 - Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alexander Semin and Alex Ovechkin scored in the shootout, and the Washington Capitals edged division-rival Carolina, 5-4, at Verizon Center.
Semin flipped a forehand shot above Cam Ward's glove for the first goal for Washington, and Ovechkin sealed the win with a wrister through the goaltender's legs.
Semin finished with a goal and three assists in regulation for the Capitals, who have won three straight and snapped a four-game home losing streak. Ovechkin, Mike Green and Nicklas Backstrom each had a goal and an assist. Jose Theodore made 28 saves in the win.
Eric Staal had a goal and two assist for Carolina, which has lost three straight since a four-game win streak. Ray Whitney and Erik Cole both notched a goal and an assist, while Niclas Wallin also scored in the loss. Ward stopped 27-of-31 shots in a losing effort.
Carolina struck first. Cole got his second goal since returning to the Hurricanes in a trade with Edmonton, firing a shot from the left circle 9:53 into the contest.
The Caps quickly answered, as Semin fed Green in the slot for an easy one- timer that beat Ward to the glove side just over a minute later. Ovechkin stuffed in a rebound off a Green shot to make it 2-1 while on the power play at 18:01.
Another power-play goal, this one by Semin on a spin-o-rama in the slot, put the Capitals ahead by two at the 1:31 mark of the second.
Staal pulled the Hurricanes to within one on his 33rd of the year 5:57 into the middle frame, but Backstrom scored Washington's third power-play goal to at 12:27.
With just eight seconds left in the second, Whitney made it a 4-3 game with his 23rd goal of the season.
Carolina pulled even midway through the third. Wallin let fly a slap shot from the point, and the puck snuck inside the near post at 10:47. Neither team scored in the final minutes, and the game went to overtime and eventually a shootout, after the Hurricanes squandered a power play opportunity in the extra session.
Game Notes
Ovechkin is 2-for-6 in shootout attempts this season...Washington leads the season series, 3-2...The Caps will now embark on a five-game road trip against Atlanta, Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina and Toronto.
<< One more to No. 1: Brodeur ties Roy's win record
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Appropriately enough, Martin Brodeur posted
win No. 551 of his illustrious career in Montreal on Saturday.
In his hometown, Brodeur notched the victory with a 22-save performance
to help his Devils
<< Morgan State captures MEAC
Winstom-Salem, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reggie Holmes scored 20 points and hauled
in six rebounds to lead Morgan State to the NCAA tourney with an 83-69 victory
over Norfolk State in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference final at the
Lawrenc
<< Christmas leads Temple to second straight A-10 title
Atlantic City, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dionte Christmas posted a game-high 29
points, including seven three-pointers, as Temple locked up a trip to the NCAA
Tournament with a 69-64 victory over Duquesne in the Atlantic 10 final from
Boardwa
<< Pedroia out of WBC, Roberts in
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia was
taken off the American roster in the World Baseball Classic with a left
oblique strain.
Pedroia said he felt a tweak in batting practice before Team
Thrashers win fifth straight, top Sabres in shootout >>
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Todd White tied the game with 3.5 seconds left
in regulation and Brett Sterling notched the lone goal of the shootout as
Atlanta edged Buffalo, 4-3, at HSBC Arena.
After Kari Lehtonen stopped Thomas Van
Why can't this be Love? Rookie leads T'Wolves past Bobcats >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Love recorded a team-high 22 points
while grabbing seven rebounds to pace the Timberwolves to a 108-100 win over
the Bobcats.
Rodney Carney and Ryan Gomes each netted 21 points, while Craig Smith
One more to No. 1: Brodeur ties Roy's wins record >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Appropriately enough, Martin Brodeur posted
win No. 551 of his illustrious career in Montreal on Saturday.
In his hometown, Brodeur notched the victory with a 22-save performance
to help his New Je
Stamkos gets SO winner as Bolts down Panthers >>
Sunrise, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Steven Stamkos scored the lone goal of the
shootout and added an assist in regulation as the Tampa Bay Lightning edged
the Florida Panthers, 4-3, at BankAtlantic Center.
After a spirited, but scoreles
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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