Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
03/17/2010 - Sacramento, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kobe Bryant posted a near triple-double and Pau Gasol ended with 28 points on 12-of-14 shooting, as the duo led the Lakers past the Kings, 106-99, at ARCO Arena.
The win was LA's fourth straight and 50th of the season, the third consecutive year the reigning champions have accomplished that feat.
Bryant went for 30 points, nine rebounds and seven assists, while Gasol added 12 rebounds for Los Angeles, which had 23 second-chance points to Sacramento's nine. Andrew Bynum ended with 21 points and 12 boards for the victors.
Tyreke Evans had another balanced game with 25 points, 11 rebounds and nine helpers for the Kings, who had won two of three coming into the game. Carl Landry deposited 15 points to go with 10 rebounds, while Jason Thompson chipped in 14 and 10 in defeat.
Ahead 61-57 midway through the third, Bryant and Lamar Odom each hit from behind the arc to extend the margin to 10.
Odom's buzzer-beater made it 77-68 in favor of LA heading to the fourth, where the Lakers scored the first seven points to pull away.
Shannon Brown's dunk capped the run for an 84-68 cushion, and the closest the Kings got until the final minute was eight.
Bryant scored 11 of the final 13 points of the first quarter to put the Lakers in front 28-17.
Sacramento quickly answered in the second and went ahead, 37-34, following a pair of buckets from Evans near the midway point.
In the final minute of the half, Bryant threw an alley-oop to Bynum and hit a free throw for a slim 49-48 lead at halftime.
Game Notes
LA has won five straight over Sacramento...Odom checked in with 10 points and seven rebounds for the Lakers, who shot 48.3 percent from the field...Spencer Hawes contributed 13 points and Omri Casspi had 10 for the Kings, who made 42.9 percent of their shots.
<< Anthony, Nuggets hand Wizards ninth straight defeat
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carmelo Anthony scored 29 points and grabbed 12
rebounds, as the Denver Nuggets battled back to upend the Washington Wizards,
97-87, at the Pepsi Center.
J.R. Smith added 17 points off the bench and Nene
<< Stars crush Sharks in Dallas
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Ribeiro and Brenden Morrow each scored a
pair of goals, as the Dallas Stars demolished the Western Conference-leading
San Jose Sharks, 8-2, at American Airlines Center.
Brad Richards had a goal and tw
<< Wozniacki, Dementieva, Jankovic reach Indian Wells QFs
Indian Wells, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second seed Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark,
fourth-seeded Russian star Elena Dementieva and No. 6 seed Jelena Jankovic of
Serbia were each victorious in fourth-round play Tuesday at the $4.5 million
BNP Par
<< Arkansas-Pine Bluff routs Winthrop in NCAA opener
Dayton, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Allen Smith scored a team-high 14 points and
grabbed six rebounds, leading Arkansas-Pine Bluff to a convincing 61-44 win
over Winthrop in the opening-round contest of the 2010 NCAA Tournament.
The win ea
Murray, Roddick advance; Federer bows out at Indian Wells >>
Indian Wells, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - World No. 1 Roger Federer was upset by
27th-seeded Marcos Baghdatis in third-round action, while fourth-seeded Andy
Murray and seventh-seeded Andy Roddick moved into the fourth round Tuesday at
the $4.
Bell signs offer sheet with Eagles >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Eagles signed restricted
free agent running back Mike Bell to an offer sheet on Thursday.
The New Orleans Saints now have seven days to match the deal, which the
Philadelphia Inqui
Ark-Pine Bluff beats Winthrop in NCAA opener >>
DAYTON, Ohio (AP) -When it mattered most, Arkansas-Pine Bluff turned into kings of the road.Losers of their first 11 games - all on the road - the Golden Lions turned their first trip to the NCAA tournament into one worth the extra packing. Allen Sm
Hughes, Bohannon may give Badgers tournament edge >>
MILWAUKEE (AP) -It's perhaps the most oft-repeated nugget of conventional NCAA tournament wisdom and it bodes particularly well for Wisconsin this year: Experienced guard play can be a decisive edge.The Badgers start one of the tournament's most exp
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
MySportsbook.com is operated by Sportingbet, a UK gambling company which is publicly traded on the AIM on the London Stock Exchange.
Sportingbet easily forms the world's largest Internet gaming company, with a truly global outreach. This also provides added transparency and accountability to this online Sportsbook and thus provides more safety and security for our customers. MySportsbook offers betting lines on all major sporting events. Our staff of almost 400 people includes clerks ready 365 days a year, 24 hours a day to care for your needs.
MySportsbook's competent, experienced managerial staff and personnel are backed by a state-of-the art sports wagering software.
We offer a 15% sign-up bonus to new customers who use Neteller for deposit and 10% bonus for all other deposit methods. Casino clients can take advantage of a 5% cash back monthly. Clients are also eligible for a 5% re-up bonus on subsequent deposits and 10% cash back on NFL losses.* Our instant-play flash casino is no-download, just click and go to a wide range of games including online Blackjack, 3-Card Poker, Craps, Baccarat, Roulette and Pai-Gow Poker, as well as a variety of slots and video poker games for the complete online casino Las Vegas experience.
My Sports book accepts all credit cards, online checks, Neteller, Firepay and bank wires. MySportsbook guarantees prompt, hassle-free payouts, as well as unparalleled individual attention from its acclaimed customer service department.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting